Data-driven vs. Gut Feeling?

Making a gut-based decision vs data-driven

As a product management coach, a common theme I see across clients — regardless of experience level — is the tension between data and intuition. product managers are constantly asked to make decisions that shape the future of their products, and the pressure to “be data-driven” can sometimes feel at odds with the fast pace and ambiguity of real-world product work. Creating the perfect algorithm that accounts for all the possible variables and edge cases is impossible, but I see complex (and fragile) mega-spreadsheets try really hard to reduce the world into a simple binary output.

What I’ve observed is that the product managers that handle this the best aren’t just analysts or visionaries — they’re integrators. They know how to leverage data effectively without becoming overly reliant on it. And they know when their gut is actually pattern recognition in disguise.

Many product managers struggle with this balance because they:

• Wait too long for “perfect” data and miss a timely opportunity.

• Rely too heavily on anecdotal input or gut feel.

• Struggle to justify their decisions to stakeholders or leadership.

• Feel stuck between competing interpretations of the same data.

Sound familiar? If so, you're not alone—and there is a way forward.

1. Start with the Question, Not the Data

Before diving into metrics or dashboards, pause and ask: What decision am I trying to make?

Too often, product managers go on data fishing expeditions—scrolling through charts in search of an “aha!” moment. But the most effective data-driven product managers begin with a clear hypothesis or question.

For example:

• Is our onboarding flow causing drop-off?

• Which customer segments are most engaged with this feature?

• Did our last experiment move the needle on activation?

With a clear question in mind, you can identify the right data to look at, avoid analysis paralysis, and focus your energy on insights that move the product forward.

Pro tip: Keep a decision journal where you track major product calls, the questions behind them, the data used, and the eventual outcome. It’s a great coaching tool and helps develop decision-making muscle. I didn’t do this enough when I was actively managing products, and I wish I had.

2. Know Your Data—and Its Limitations

Not all data is created equal. product managers need to develop fluency not just in reading dashboards, but in understanding how the data was collected, what it reflects, and what it doesn’t. I see people mis-using data to justify their desired decision all the time, and they get away with it because most people don’t question the data collection enough.

Some questions to ask yourself:

• Is this quantitative or qualitative data?

• Is the sample size sufficient?

• Is there a risk of bias (e.g., only power users filling out the survey)?

• Are we looking at leading or lagging indicators?

Data is a tool — but like any tool, it requires context to use well. One thing I often coach product management leaders on is recognizing when data is incomplete, misleading, or being interpreted too narrowly.

Another pro tip: Think of data in terms of confidence levels. Is this high-confidence, directional, or speculative? That clarity helps you calibrate how much weight to give it. I’ve found this technique really, really helpful in my personal career.

3. Bring in Qualitative Insights Early

Quantitative data tells you what’s happening — but not always why. That’s where qualitative inputs like user interviews, customer support feedback, sales calls, or in-app behavior reviews come in.

Strong product decisions often start with a blend of data and story:

• A spike in churn + exit interviews

• Low engagement metrics + user quotes

• Experiment results + session recordings

The key is to build a holistic picture, especially in early-stage or ambiguous problem spaces. It’s also where intuition starts to form—not from thin air, but from repeated exposure to patterns in customer behavior.

4. Use Intuition as a Hypothesis Generator

Intuition isn’t the opposite of data — it’s the result of experienced pattern recognition. When a seasoned product manager says, “I have a feeling this won’t work,” it’s often because they’ve seen similar dynamics before, even if they can’t yet articulate them in numbers.

The trick is not to ignore intuition, but to test it.

Use your instincts to generate hypotheses. Then, look for data (or feedback) that supports or challenges them. This creates a virtuous loop where intuition leads to inquiry, and inquiry leads to sharper insights. For example, if your gut says a feature isn’t landing, ask yourself what behaviors you’d expect to see if that were true. Then go look for them.

5. Decide with Clarity, Not Certainty

Here’s something I emphasize all the time: you will never have perfect data. Waiting for certainty in product decisions is often a recipe for inaction.

The goal isn’t certainty—it’s clarity:

• What do we know?

• What’s still unclear?

• What’s the cost of being wrong?

• What’s the smallest way to learn more?

Great product managers get comfortable making informed bets, communicating the rationale behind them, and being transparent about what will be monitored and why.

6. Know When to Trust Your Gut

There are moments when data is too sparse, slow, or noisy to guide you, and you still have to make a call.

These are often:

• Early-stage product bets

• Big vision decisions

• Brand or experience design choices

• Strategic tradeoffs across teams

In these cases, trusting your intuition — especially if it’s informed by customer knowledge, team input, and business context — is not just acceptable, it’s essential.

The key is to:

• Acknowledge that it’s a judgment call.

• Articulate why you believe this is the right path.

• Set expectations about how you’ll evaluate the results and adjust if needed.

Final Thoughts

Balancing data and intuition is not about choosing one over the other. It’s about learning to use both wisely, and knowing which to lean on depending on the situation.

If you’re finding yourself stuck between analysis and action — or struggling to justify your decisions to stakeholders — coaching can help. Together, we can unpack your instincts, level up your decision-making, and turn both data and intuition into tools you wield with confidence.